Japan - News Archive

In Recent Japanese Elections An Unequal Electoral System Explains the Government's Defeat

Posted: 07/20/2010
On July 11th, voters went to the polls in Japan to elect members to the upper house of the legislature in what was the first major election in Japan since the opposition Democratic Party of Japan ousted the Liberal Democratic Party last summer. The LDP had, with a one-year interruption, held power since its creation in 1955. In Japan, the House of Councillors performs a similar role to the US Senate in that its members are intended to represent local governments rather than the people directly. Its members serve six-year terms, with half of the chamber elected in staggered elections every three years.Of those 121 seats up for election in each cycle, 73 are elected from 47 Prefectures, while 48 are elected proportionally on the basis of an open-list system. And while the Prime Minister is elected by the Lower House of the Diet, which also maintains sole authority over the budget, on all other issues the upper house has the right to block legislation, which can only be overcome by a two-thirds vote of the lower house.As a consequence, control of the upper house is vital for governments, and more than one Prime Minister has fallen after a poor result. And in the elections held on the 11th of July, the one-month old government of Naoto Kan suffered what is already being heralded as a serious defeat. Rather than gaining two seats as they hoped, they instead lost 8, and the 44 they won were eight less than the 52 won by the formerly dominant Liberal Democratic Party and its allies. It is important however, not to overstate the results, as the outcome of the elections had as much to with the nature of the Japanese electoral system as with a shift in public preferences. While the Democratic Party performed significantly worse than in 2007 when it won 40% of the vote and 62 seats, the 39% of the vote it won this time was substantially greater than the 33% won by the LDP. Most of its losses, which took place in multi-member districts, owed more to the bias of the electoral system than they did to a major change in voter preference nationwide.This bias exists due to the dynamics of multi-member districts. While there are 73 FPTP seats but only 49 Prefectures. One of the major differences between the US Senate and the Japanese House of Councillors, is that in Japan regional representation is balanced with population. While every Prefecture is guaranteed at least one seat each cycle, the remaining seats are distributed according to population. As a consequence, while the ancient capital of Nara only elects a single-representative each cycle, Tokyo elects five.In theory this guarantees a degree of proportional representation. Due to the nature of multi-member constituencies in which each voter receives a single vote, an overwhelming advantage in support is required to win both seats. In fact in a two party system, if one party declines to run two candidates, 67% is required, and in regions where that threshold is not reached, the minority party is practically guaranteed a seat.In practice therefore, the system is rigged for the formerly-ruling Liberal Democrats, because the single-member districts tend to be in less populous areas where its support is concentrated, while the multi-member districts ensure that it is guaranteed near equal representation in urban areas where the various opposition parties have their base.The difficulties this represents for the DPJ or any other party is apparent when one examines the results of the Miyagi Prefecture this year. Candidate Party % of the Vote Yutaka Kumagai LDP 26.83% Elected Mitsuru Sakurai DPJ 24.41% Elected Hiromi Ito DPJ 16.46% Ichiro Ichikawa Independent 11.04% Fumihiro Kikuchi Your Party 10.78% Tetsuo Kanno Communist 5.41% Mikio Kato New Renaissance 4.55%As is apparent, the DPJ had a significant lead in voter preference, 41% to 27%. Nevertheless, the 41% of voters who chose the DPJ ended up with the same representation as the 27% who voted for the LDP. Because the major parties are strong enough to win at least one seat in every multi-member district, this means that the winner of a House of Councillors election will always be determined in the single-member districts. And they favor the LDP as is made apparent by the chart below of where each party won last weekend. Party Single Two-Seat Three-Seat Five-Seat Total DPJ 8 12 6 2 28 LDP/NK 21 12 7 2 42 Your Party 0 0 2 1 3 As can be seen, the multi-member districts were largely a wash with a one-seat advantage for the LDP-New Komeito grouping (counted together because New Komeito only ran three candidates and backed the LDP elseware). By contrast, the single-member districts provided virtually the entire LDP margin in the election. In a touch of irony, the DPJ actually suffers from the greater representation granted to regions based on population. If the House of Councillors was like the US Senate, with each Prefecture receiving one-seat, the LDP�s lead would be cut to a 25-22 margin, rather than the 42-28 margin that currently exists.The fruits of such a system are fully apparent when we examine the �popular� vote in Japan, which has been won in every election since 2004 by the DPJ.Party 2004 Prefectural Results 2007 Prefectural Results 2010 Prefectural Results Seats 2004 Seats 2007 Seats 2010 DPJ 39.1% 42.4% 39.0% 31 41 28 LDP 35.1% 31.4% 33.4% 34 24 39 New Komeito 3.1% 6.0% 3.9% 3 2 3 Communist Party 9.8% 8.7% 7.3% 0 0 0 SDP 1.8% 2.3% 1.0 % 0 0 0 Your Party N/A N/A 10.2% N/A N/A 3 Others 10.4% 9.7% 5.3% 5 7 0 As is clearly demonstrated, the DPJ faces an enormous structural bias. Only in 2007, with a lead(including the then independent People�s New Party) of 11% were they able to comb together a significant majority of the Prefectural seats.The introduction of proportional representation for a little over a third of the seats was intended to mitigate the harms of the system. But the proportional system, rather than being compensatory like that used in Scotland or Germany(ie. One in which seats are distributed to parties that underperformed in FPTP relative to their vote total), is normative, with the result that it hardly impacts the seat totals. This year the DPJ won four more proportional seats than the LDP, but this hardly moved the totals, as is demonstrated below. Party 2004 Proportional(2010 seats) 2007 Proportional Vote 2010 Proportional Vote Seats 2004 Seats 2007 Seats 2010 DPJ 37.8% 39.48% 31.56% 50 62 44 LDP 30.0% 28.0% 24.07% 49 37 52 New Komeito 15.4% 13.18% 13.07% 11 9 9 Communist Party 7.8% 7.48% 6.10% 4 3 3 SDP 5.2% 4.58% 3.84% 2 2 2 Your Party N/A N/A 13.57% N/A N/A 10 Others 3.6% 7.28% 7.7% 5 8 2 As can be seen, by making the proportional seats a minority of the total, and allocating them strictly according to a separate list system, any equalizing effect was reduced to a minimal level at best.Therefore what really happened two weeks ago was less a massive shift in voter preference than a smaller shift that was sufficient for the LDP to hold onto its lopsided advantage in the single-member districts. In reality, the DPJ only lost 6 seats, three of which were prefectural and three proportional.Appearances however, are different, as political realities also often are. Whatever the merits of the Japanese electoral system, the DPJ suffered a major setback two weeks ago, one that will make governing extremely difficult in the future. And whatever the actual merits of its performance, the LDP held together contrary to expectations it would collapse in opposition, meaning that Japan�s current two-party system is likely here to stay.

Read full story. Source: FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right

Japanese PM in election setback

Posted: 07/13/2010
Japanese PM Naoto Kan rules out calling a snap election following his party's poor performance in upper house polls.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | Asia-Pacific | World Edition

Japanese PM in election setback

Posted: 07/12/2010
Japanese PM Naoto Kan rules out calling a snap election following his party's poor performance in upper house polls.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | Asia-Pacific | World Edition

Kan becomes Japan prime minister

Posted: 06/04/2010
Former finance minister Naoto Kan becomes Japan's PM, pledging to rebuild ties with the US strained over a military base.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | Asia-Pacific | World Edition

Kan emerges as Japan front-runner

Posted: 06/03/2010
Finance Minister Naoto Kan emerges as a front-runner to become Japan's next leader, after Yukio Hatoyama's resignation.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | Asia-Pacific | World Edition

Japanese PM Is Fourth To Resign In Two Years

Posted: 06/03/2010
Japanese Prime Minister Yukio HATOYAMA, leader of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), resigned on Wednesday, making him the fourth Japanese PM to resign in the last two years. HATOYAMA's resignation stems from his failure to fulfill an election promise to relocate a US airbase off Okinawa. DPJ leadership elections will take place on Friday, and the current favorite to replace HATYOYAMA is Finance Minister Naoto KAN. The only other DPJ member to publicly state an interest in the position has been Shinji TARUDOKO, the chair of the party's environmental panel. The DPJ took power last August in a landslide election victory that ended more than a half century of nearly constant Liberal Democratic Party rule. Since then, however, the DPJ's popularity has plummeted. Japan will hold elections to its upper house, the House of Councillors, next month.

Source: ElectionGuide

Opposition Ousts Japan's Long-Ruling LDP

Posted: 09/02/2009
Japan’s opposition Democratic Party (DPJ) will lead that country’s government for the first time since 1994, following landmark lower house elections last weekend. The DPJ gained 195 seats in the House of Representatives, and the Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled the country since 1955 except for an 11-month interlude, lost 177 seats. Yukio HATOYAMA, expected to become Premier, has reached out to other small opposition parties in order to form a coalition. There are no existing rules governing transfers of power, but leaders from both factions have jointly pledged a smooth transition.

Source: ElectionGuide

Opposition Woos Japan Voters With Costly Vows

Posted: 08/04/2009
As elections near, the Democratic Party of Japan is attracting voters with promises of more cash in hand.

Read full story. Source: NYT > International

Japan PM apologises for failures

Posted: 07/21/2009
Japanese PM Taro Aso apologises for his party's defeat in local polls after dissolving parliament ahead of August elections.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | World | UK Edition

Japan's PM dissolves parliament, calls elections

Posted: 07/21/2009
TOKYO (AP) -- Prime Minister Taro Aso dissolved the powerful lower house of Japan's parliament Tuesday and vowed his divided ruling party will make a new start in national elections next month despite forecasts it may lose the grip it has held on the nation for most of the past 55 years....

Read full story. Source: AP Top International News

Japan's ruling party defeats no-confidence motion

Posted: 07/14/2009
TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's ruling party defeated a no-confidence motion Tuesday against the prime minister's Cabinet, but an increasingly bold opposition used the occasion to heap criticism on the government it aims to oust in national elections next month....

Read full story. Source: AP Top International News

Facing Party Rift, Japan's Premier Calls Election

Posted: 07/14/2009
Prime Minister Taro Aso said he will call elections next month after his embattled Liberal Democratic Party suffered a bruising defeat.

Read full story. Source: NYT > International

Japan's ruling party could lose power in elections

Posted: 07/13/2009
TOKYO (AP) -- The political party that has governed Japan for the last 50 years could be ousted from power in national elections next month - with the opposition boosted by worries over the economy and gaffes by the ruling party....

Read full story. Source: AP Top International News

Japan PM Orders Early Parliamentary Elections

Posted: 07/13/2009
Seeking a renewed mandate, Prime Minister Taro ASO has called for Parliamentary elections on August 30, a month ahead of schedule. ASO’S Liberal Democratic Party has dominated Japanese politics for many of the last 54 years, but economic troubles have strained the LDP’s popularity. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan won a majority in the Tokyo prefectural assembly on Sunday, an outcome analysts view as a bellwether for upcoming national elections. Japan’s Parliament has been in deadlock since opposition politicians won control of the country’s upper house in 2007.

Source: ElectionGuide

Japan's main opposition tastes victory

Posted: 05/25/2009
TOKYO: - The success of a candidate backed by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in a key mayoral election suggests that Japan's largest opposition group may be on track to victory in the country's next general election.

Read full story. Source: Straits Times Interactive - ASIA

Leader of Japan's Opposition Resigns

Posted: 05/12/2009
Ichiro Ozawa said he wanted to prevent a campaign financing scandal involving one of his aides from hurting his party's chances.

Read full story. Source: NYT > International

Aso Confirmed as Japan's Prime Minister

Posted: 09/24/2008
Taro Aso, a veteran politician who fought for years to win Japan's top political post, was officially named prime minister on Wednesday.

Read full story. Source: NYT > International

In Japanese election, populist appeals and claims of political theater

Posted: 09/17/2008
It is not clear that Japan's Liberal Democratic Party's push for reform is anything more than a show.

Read full story. Source: Asia - Pacific - International Herald Tribune

Japan searches for a new prime minister, again

Posted: 09/01/2008
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan began searching for a new prime minister on Tuesday after Yasuo Fukuda became the second leader to abruptly resign in less than a year, threatening a further policy vacuum as the economy teeters on the brink of recession.

Read full story. Source: Reuters: International

Fukuda installed as Japanese PM

Posted: 09/25/2007
Japan's parliament formally declares veteran politician Yasuo Fukuda as new prime minister.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | World | UK Edition

Japan's Fukuda runaway leader in premiership race

Posted: 09/17/2007
TOKYO (Reuters) - Yasuo Fukuda emerged as runaway leader to become Japan's next prime minister on Monday after a survey of ruling party lawmakers who must choose between the 71-year-old veteran and his hawkish rival Taro Aso next weekend.

Read full story. Source: Reuters: International

Japan's leadership race hots up

Posted: 09/14/2007
The race to succeed outgoing PM Shinzo Abe hots up, as two key candidates announce they plan to run.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | World | UK Edition

Japanese prime minister resigns

Posted: 09/12/2007
Shinzo Abe resigns as Japanese prime minister after a bruising election in July and poor poll ratings.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | World | UK Edition

Prime Minister Shinzo ABE Resigns

Posted: 09/12/2007
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo ABE of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced on September 12 that he would resign after less than a year in office. His popularity began to drop after scandals involving senior ministers and after his party lost the upper house elections earlier this year. His resignation came one week before he was expected to answer to parliament over plans to extend the Japanese naval mission in support of US-led operations in Afghanistan. The LDP is set to meet on September 19 in order to elect a new PM.

Source: ElectionGuide

Japan PM rapped by party for huge election loss

Posted: 08/24/2007
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was sharply criticized by his own party on Friday for a huge election loss last month, with the party saying he was seen as out of touch with voters' interests.

Read full story. Source: Reuters: International

Japan PM to stay after poll defeat

Posted: 07/30/2007
TOKYO (Reuters) - Hawkish Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed to stay in his post despite a crushing defeat for his ruling camp in an upper house election, but policy gridlock loomed and Abe's grip on his job was uncertain.

Read full story. Source: Reuters: International

Ruling party defeated in Parliamentary elections

Posted: 07/30/2007
The official results of the Parliamentary elections gave a hard blow to PM Shinzo ABE’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The LDP and its ally the New Komeito (NK) party received only 37 and 9 seats respectively, falling short of the 64 seats needed to maintain their majority in the 242 seat House of Councilors. On the other hand, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won 60 seats in this election, thus giving the opposition a majority of 140 seats. Despite the defeat, Prime Minister ABE said he would not resign.

Source: ElectionGuide

Japan PM seen battling to keep job after election

Posted: 07/25/2007
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's backers are trying to set the stage for him to keep his job if his ruling bloc gets trounced in a parliamentary election on Sunday, but analysts wonder whether the strategy will work.

Read full story. Source: Reuters: International

Campaigning starts in Japan polls

Posted: 07/12/2007
Campaigning is under way for Japan's upper house polls, with PM Shinzo Abe aware a defeat could cost him his job.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | World | UK Edition

Japan approves constitution steps

Posted: 05/14/2007
Japan's parliament passes legislation that paves the way for a referendum on revising the pacifist constitution.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | World | UK Edition

Japan PM-to-be Abe eyes cabinet, faces challenges

Posted: 09/21/2006
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's prime minister-to-be, Shinzo Abe, turned his attention on Thursday to the line-up for his cabinet amid concerns about how the hawkish, youthful leader will cope with diplomatic and economic challenges ahead.

Read full story. Source: Reuters: International

Japan's Abe set to become PM

Posted: 09/20/2006
TOKYO (Reuters) - Shinzo Abe, a conservative advocate of a more muscular Japanese foreign policy, was overwhelmingly elected ruling party leader on Wednesday, setting the stage for him to be chosen as prime minister next week.

Read full story. Source: Reuters: International

Japan's ruling party chooses Abe

Posted: 09/20/2006
Japan's ruling party elects Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe as next leader, and likely prime minister.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | World | UK Edition

Japan's Abe announces candidacy

Posted: 09/01/2006
Shinzo Abe, the front-runner in the race to be Japan's next leader, formally announces his bid for the job.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | Asia-Pacific | World Edition

Japan's Abe running for PM

Posted: 09/01/2006
HIROSHIMA, Japan (Reuters) - Shinzo Abe announced his candidacy on Friday to be Japan's next prime minister, a post he looks certain to win, and said he wanted his country to forge a stronger role on the world stage and improve ties with Asia.

Read full story. Source: Reuters: International

Japan opposition picks leader

Posted: 04/07/2006
Japan's main opposition Democratic Party elects veteran politician Ichiro Ozawa as its new leader.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | Asia-Pacific | World Edition

Japan opposition leader resigns

Posted: 03/31/2006
Japan's main opposition leader announces his resignation over unfounded claims against his opponents.

Read full story. Source: BBC News | Asia-Pacific | World Edition

Japan Announces Election Results

Posted: 09/15/2005
Prime Minister Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a landslide victory in the Lower House election on September 11. The LDP secured 296 seats, while its coalition partner New Komeito won another 31 seats. Prime Minister Koizumi called snap elections in August, after his postal reform bills were rejected in the Upper House of the Diet. Koizumi refused to allow 37 members of the LDP who voted against the reform to run as LDP candidates. With 68% of the lower house, the ruling coalition is now in a position to move forward in the disputed reform process.

Source: ElectionGuide

Japans Calls Early Parliamentary Elections

Posted: 08/11/2005
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has called early parliamentary elections for September 11 after he lost a vote on postal privatization bills in the Upper House of the Diet. The bills were a key element of his economic reform package to help economic recovery.

Source: ElectionGuide

Japanese PM Announces Dissolution of Parliament

Posted: 09/29/2003
On September 25, Prime Minister Junichiro KOIZUMI announced that he will dissolve parliament in time for parliamentary elections on November 9.  According to the electoral commission, the prime minister is required to call parliamentary elections prior to June 2004.

Source: ElectionGuide

Japan's LDP to Elect New Leader on December 10

Posted: 12/10/2002
One of Japan’s top political parties, the Liberal Democratic Party, will elect a new leader on December 10 to replace Yukio HATOYAMA. Elections were called when HATOYAMA announced his resignation last week, due to previous election setbacks and criticisms about merging the party with a rival party.  The two candidates contesting the position are Naoto KAN and Katsuya OKADA, both of whom are viewed as providing little or no change to the party’s platform.

Source: ElectionGuide

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