Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya

Aug. 15, 2011, 9:45 p.m.

The paper, Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya, analyzes the potential outcomes of a post-Qaddafi regime and the implications from these outcomes.  The aim of the paper is to pre-emptively look at the possible scenarios that may arise in Libya and find the best solutions for each situation.  Potential indicators regarding ways to determine the stability of the country are provided, as well as humanitarian requirements, warning indicators, and preventive options.  There are major incentives for both the EU, US, Middle East and Africa to ensure that a peaceful transition occurs. 

A relatively successful transition from the Qaddafi regime to a united, stable, more open and democratic Libya would be seen in the region and more widely as a credit to the NATO-led intervention. It would also enable Libya to resume its oil and gas exports, demonstrate international community capacity to manage such transitions, and encourage positive outcomes to other Arab Spring protests, including those ongoing in Yemen and Syria.

 A solid, unified plan with buy-in from the different players will help the chances of a successful transition to take place. Regardless of what scenario plays out, part of the plan will have to “include securing vital infrastructure, weapons, and matériel as well as keeping public order”.

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